Kaspi is positioned as Kazakhstan’s dominant “super app,” integrating payments, marketplace, and BNPL services in a single platform. It has achieved market shares of 75% in digital payments, 89% in e-commerce, and 17% in BNPL, significantly outpacing global giants like Visa, Mastercard, and local competitors. From 2017 to 2024, Kaspi grew revenue from ~$846M to ~$5.6B and net income from ~$200M to $2.3B, while diversifying both its revenue and profit mix away from fintech toward payments and marketplace services. ROE has surpassed 80%, net income margins have improved to over 40%, and management owns more than 50% of the company—underscoring long-term alignment.
Despite these metrics, Kaspi trades at a modest ~7.1x 2025E earnings and is expected to yield nearly 10% in dividends by 2026. The perceived risk is largely geographical: many investors remain unfamiliar with Kazakhstan, and sentiment is still influenced by outdated cultural tropes. However, the company is expanding, notably through its 2025 acquisition of a 65% stake in Hepsiburada, Turkey’s leading e-commerce platform. With continued innovation and geographic expansion, Caro-Kann Capital sees potential for Kaspi to compound earnings at ~15% and deliver ~4x returns by 2028, driven by both fundamentals and eventual re-rating.
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